2008 turned out to be a year of extremes: in weather, in currency exchange rates, in oil and commodity prices, in food prices and in political leadership. The question now is whether 2009 will join 1929, 1939 and 1989 in the list of years when a totally new economic and political order began to surface. We think the answer is yes, but a key indicator will be the outcome of the climate summit due to be held late in the year in Copenhagen. To date, the evidence is very far from hopeful.