On a scale of one to ten (COP 15)

17 Dec 2009 – Gary Kendall

I think I’m missing my colleague Geoff who left Copenhagen early this morning. One of his favourite sentence constructions begins with the words: “On a scale of one to ten,” swiftly followed by his question of interest. I have this formulation rattling around in my head for two reasons: (1) we spent the last couple of days designing a questionnaire that probes how business delegates here at the Bella Center assess the likely outcomes – and consequences – of COP 15; and (2) with precious little sleep in the last 48 hours, it’s a particularly useful way to short-circuit pontification and deliver insights with the minimum of effort. So I’m going to apply the methodology in this blog entry.

The Golden Ticket

Before I do, I need to share a guilty secret. This pass card seems to be the UNFCCC equivalent of one of Willy Wonka’s Golden Tickets. It may seem like an ordinary “secondary pass” – printed in haste from the copy shop round the corner from the Little Mermaid statue – but it possesses extraordinary magical powers. I received it on Tuesday evening, for access to the Bella Center on Wednesday. Recall that the Tuesday/Wednesday quota for non-governmental delegates was 7,000, dropping to a mere 1,000 on Thursday and just 90 on Friday. Now, I find myself still here on Thursday – and I’m convinced I’ll still be here until the bitter end; whether that will be on Friday or Saturday morning is anyone’s guess at the moment.

How did I manage this? Honestly, I don’t know – the UN security guards swept the building of all non-governmental observers in the early hours of this morning – but a clue may lie in the following photograph.

What happens next?

As I was shovelling down a plate of couscous earlier at the Climate Kitchen, I got talking to Dan Reicher, Director of Climate Change & Energy Initiatives at Google. He’s a COP veteran, but seems to be almost as confused as I am regarding what will happen next. We discuss a few of the possibilities. Has the UNFCCC as an institution run its course, and are we seeing the beginning of the end here? Or could the extraordinarily diverse and occasionally uplifting gathering we’ve been part of this week be enough to convince all-comers that global multi-lateralism is something to cherish and nurture? Dan is an extremely sharp and amiable bloke, though it’s difficult to concentrate 100% as French President Sarkozy proves that size is no impediment to physical presence as he motors past our table, surrounded by twenty or so carmeramen, reporters, and assorted hangers-on. Very impressive from two metres away.

It’s the Process, Stupid!

Late this morning and early afternoon I was back in Plenary II to learn how the negotiations – suspended late yesterday to collective dismay – would proceed. There followed a couple of hours of process questions from the Parties, chiefly Sudan, South Africa, Egypt, and South Korea, and nothing whatsoever of any substance. This is maddening. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m quite partial to a thorough process. I think it’s a legacy of the microchip ExxonMobil implanted in my nape some ten years ago. But please, today is the penultimate day of a two year process that began with COP 13 in Bali, we still have not started negotiating the substantive issues in the Kyoto Protocol. IS THIS HOW THE WORLD ENDS?

So, on a scale of 1-10…

• How optimistic am I that COP 15 will deliver something remotely conclusive? 2
• How much faith do I have in the UNFCCC as an institution to deliver on its primary objective? 5
• How much do I want to be here tomorrow – and possibly Saturday – to see it succeed, stall, or implode? 9
• President Sarkozy of France is surprisingly short, but his height would be about right for a child of how many years old? 7