Implosion (COP 15)

18 Dec 2009 – Gary Kendall

It is around 08:30 on Saturday morning and we are chasing our tails. This has been an extraordinary night.

I set up camp on a sofa outside Plenary II, where the COP 15/CMP 5 Plenary had been gathering throughout the last couple of days. But then at something like 3am the Parties convened in Plenary I – which is some 5 minutes walk from here and has been a restricted area since the High-Level segment began on Wednesday. So I spent the night here instead, within view and earshot of some CCTV screens, waking every hour or so and attempting to follow what was going on, and then going back to sleep with a sense of disbelief at was I was witnessing. There’s no easy way to say it: despite the presence of some 120 Heads of State and Government (abbreviation: HOGS) this week – or perhaps because of it? – this conference has imploded.

The Guardian newspaper posted an analysis of the so-called Copenhagen Accord on its website shortly after midnight. It pre-warns of the potential discontent that has been realised in the early hours of this morning, and brought the UNFCCC process crashing down:

The deal was brokered between China, South Africa, India, Brazil and the US, but late last night it was still unclear whether it would be adopted by all 192 countries in the full plenary session.

Lumumba Di-Aping, chief negotiator for the G77 group of 130 developing countries, has labelled the Accord “climate change scepticism in action,” going on to say that “Obama has eliminated any difference between him and Bush.” This is a tad harsh – I’ve never heard Obama say “newkeylar” instead of “nuclear” – but it captures the pervasive mood of frustration and disappointment after 12 months of relative optimism that the US President could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Since the Plenary began at 3am, it has been clear that all 192 nations would NOT reach a consensus on the text. Various Parties have lambasted the US President for acting like an Emperor in attempting to short-circuit the inclusive, bottom-up UNFCCC process. I note that this is the same UN process that has failed to deliver a comprehensive global treaty to limit greenhouse gas emissions since it was established some 17 years ago, though many would argue had the US adopted Kyoto, we would not be in this mess now. We are trapped in a circular argument, and I wonder again whether the UNFCCC has run its course. The New York Times reported that many of the delegates here “suggested this would be the last time that 193 nations would gather in this way to negotiate such a complex accord”.

Maddeningly, and in keeping with the theme of these negotiations, the arguments are not about the substance of the Copenhagen Accord – however imperfect it may be – but about the process through which it was conceived. Ultimately, this is an issue of sovereignty; it is about countries unwilling to be dictated to by other countries. Was it ever any different?

The Plenary adjourned “for a short time” some 40 minutes ago. Many of the Party delegates have not slept in 48 hours, and emotions in the conference room are running too high to be concealed by the diplomatic language of these discussions. Somehow, the Danish Prime Minister – as President of COP 15 – has to find a way to bring it to a conclusion.

As for me, I can see daybreak through the glass ceilings of the Bella Center and despite the freezing conditions outside I can no longer resist its appeal. After more than three days in this madhouse, I can’t take any more. I’m leaving.