Gulf of Mexico: Accidents Waiting to Happen

06 May 2010 – Gary Kendall

Co-written by Gary Kendall (Executive Director), Yasmin Crowther & Judy Kuszewski (Associates)

As BP struggles to contain the potentially devastating oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, familiar questions are being asked: Were the environmental impact and safety assessments sufficiently rigorous and robust for such challenging operating conditions? What are the implications for the future exploration and production of so-called “difficult oil” resources — those found in deepwater reservoirs and in pristine environments such as the Arctic — and what will be the repercussions for the international oil companies that are increasingly driving in this direction? Who will ultimately be held to account — not just for the lost lives and the clean-up, but for compensating entire communities dependent on healthy ecosystems for fishing or tourism? What price energy security, without energy that is safe and clean?

The questions are familiar because they have been asked so many times before in the wake of oil spills, industrial disasters and technological failures — from Bhopal through to Chernobyl and Exxon Valdez. Yet the accidents happen time and again: systems fail for all sorts of reasons, and the coping mechanisms and technologies that should shore them up also fall short. Efforts are subsequently made by all involved to ensure the systems are regulated never to fail again — and mostly they don’t — until conditions change and become more challenging, innovations are tried (but not always fully tested) and then the controls and technologies falter before, at some point, failure inevitably occurs once more. This is how systems and societies learn and evolve — by making mistakes — but never without a price.

Deepwater drilling is not the only uncharted territory being explored by the oil industry. As the sector turns to a growing number of unconventional (for which we might read “dirty”) sources and novel (or “increasingly risky”) technologies, the ways in which a system might succeed or fail, and the consequences, are still not fully known — and may not even be completely mapped in confidential corporate worst case scenarios. Fifteen years ago, in 1995, Shell was setting about preparing Brent Spar — an old, redundant technology — for deepwater disposal. The company had conducted a rigorous analysis of options, had looked at best and worst cases, and had secured regulatory approval for its plan. It wasn’t going to spill much oil, but it was going to dump a structure the size of Big Ben’s clock tower in the mid-Atlantic. The prospect spurred action by Greenpeace and protests in parts of Europe that saw Shell’s market share plummet and eventually led to the company changing its plans to seek an alternative redeployment solution.

In the case of Brent Spar, the principles and risks involved in deep sea disposal were catapulted onto our television screens. We were informed — albeit ill-informed by some segments of the media — of the options, choices and consequences and compelled to take a view, and Shell responded. However, in the case of most new technology, it is very hard to create early awareness of options, choices and consequences — it’s not always obviously newsworthy. We often only become aware of decisions that have already been taken when it is too late, when the oil slick is creeping towards Louisiana’s pristine shores and the local economy that depends upon it. A hope from the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is that it will help reinvigorate conversations, coverage and analysis of new technologies, and that it will also give renewed momentum to stalling climate and energy legislation in the US, leading to tougher regulation on matters of environment and safety.

It may all drive up the price of oil — certainly it has brought the true cost of oil into sharper focus — but this may also help speed the shift to a lower carbon economy. If we could witness the consequences of not shifting, as graphically as we can see the consequences of the oil slick as it approaches the Gulf shoreline, then we would not hesitate to leave fossil fuels in the ground.

An in-depth analysis of Brent Spar and its implications, by Yasmin Crowther & Judy Kuszewski, is the cover story in Ethical Corporation magazine (May 2010).