Four horsemen of the aCOPalypse (COP 15)

17 Dec 2009 – Gary Kendall

We are currently less than two hours away from the final day of COP 15 – indeed, the final day of the two-year process initiated at COP 13, namely the “Bali Roadmap” which was supposed to outline the negotiating framework that would lead to a new global climate treaty in the post-2012 world. So why have we just lost another two hours to a debate about the forward process in the AWG-LCA plenary? One camp wants to accept a proposal from the Chair to set up a small “Friends of the Chair” group that would in theory be able to make more nimble progress in the few hours standing between ourselves and total collapse of the talks. Another camp – and judging by the number of interventions we have a roughly 50/50 split among the plenary – refuse to allow a select group of Parties to hammer out details in a non-transparent way. Again, nothing of substance is being currently being discussed in here.

UK economist and climate change expert Nick Stern has this evening laid out the FOUR make-or-break substantive issues that need to be addressed between now and close of play tomorrow. They are:

1. GHG emissions reductions
2. Financial support to developing countries (Clinton proposal earlier today helped here)
3. Monitoring, Reporting, Verification (MRV) of emissions reductions
4. Common but differentiated responsibilities (e.g. relative versus absolute)

According to Stern, the remaining negotiation ‘landmines’ are around procedure, but “Presidents, Prime Ministers, and Secretaries of State can rise above that, it’s their job to rise above that. We’ve got a good chance, but we could also screw it up.”

Long night – or two – ahead of us.