Conference of the Parties or Parties of the Conference? (COP 13)

08 Dec 2007 – Geoff Lye

Three plane loads of climate campaigners, negotiators, lobbyists and voyeurs (or ‘observers’ as those not actually negotiating prefer to be called!) poured through Bali airport in the hour that I was there clearing immigration and customs. Having barely checked into the hotel and checked out my email, I was invited by (Professor) Diana Liverman, Director of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute to join a drinks reception in the hotel’s conference centre hosted by IIED and others at which she was to present. Within the next three hours, I’d had two more meetings and joined the NGO beach party at another resort hotel a mile or so away.

I’ve barely arrived yet feel compelled to question whether this international conference model is a responsible way of addressing a critical environmental issue. It has been calculated that 100,000 tonnes of extra CO2 will sit in the atmosphere for the next 100 years or so as a direct consequence of 10,000+ attendees flying in. [Incidentally, and not by way of excuse or apology, I am unconvinced that this is a fair assessment since everyone I have met so far has flown in on scheduled flights which would have flown anyway – though no doubt emptier. Furthermore, all I have asked have offset their emissions: something still highly unlikely to be done by even one passenger per flight normally.]

But beyond the direct CO2 emissions, there are other environmental stresses imposed by such huge numbers on this ecologically fragile island. Water is in short supply: not only are the visitors taking priority over agricultural and other local needs, but huge quantities of bottled water are being shipped and flown in. In front of me as I type is one of my two ‘free’ glass bottles of Danone Mountain Spring Water. We have been told not to drink tap water, but the distant brand prevails over simpler, cheaper, local alternatives. The high demand for electricity (particularly for air conditioning in the 30 degree, 85% humidity climate) forces the bringing on stream of what Lonely Planet describes as a ‘roaring and smoking’ power plant near Benoa Harbour.

But let’s forget the environment for a moment and think social: a drinks reception, meetings in the bar and a beach party – and I’ve only been here for five hours! Another beach party tomorrow (Ecosecurities), a breakfast meeting with a Shell contact on Monday followed by an all-day event of the WBCSD and a PwC dinner in the evening. The scale of the socialising and networking is extraordinary.

If I filed this right now, it would be easy for the reader to be entirely cynical and for me to be feeling guilty. It’s almost like the partying on the Titanic as the iceberg loomed. But, of course, those partygoers knew nothing of the iceberg whereas we have had decades of warnings on the impending – if melting – climate iceberg. Is socialising here in Bali an appropriate way to put the world on track ‘to avoid the unmanageable and to manage the unavoidable’ as John Schellnhuber neatly puts it? John is climate adviser to the German Government, a member of the German delegation and colleague at Oxford’s ECI. His phrase, incidentally, perfectly captures the dual challenges facing this conference: the need to mitigate climate change by cutting emissions dramatically while ensuring that we adapt to lessen the effects of unavoidable climate changes which are already under way.

But I will write on because there is another view. Take one of my bar meetings – with Michael Molitor. Michael is a longstanding acquaintance with a pedigree in climate science and solutions. We worked alongside each other in the Ford Motor Company advising a senior VP group appointed by Bill Ford to assess and recommend how best the company should respond to the climate challenge. He and I were in a seminal meeting some years ago where the Ford team accepted accountability for the use phase of their products – about 90% of vehicle related GHG emissions are when they are driven. This was no small matter and for the first time committed the company to understand and respond to environmental challenges which needed to be addressed but which were not being demanded by their customers. The implications of shifting from a compliance and customer focused business strategy to a business model rooted in accountability were profound for Ford and, in due course, will be for all other businesses too.

Given the climate connection, let me stay with Ford for a moment. As a result of their strategic review, Ford further committed to develop a long term technology path which would align the global on-road emissions of the Ford fleet with the need to stabilise greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at around 550 ppm – which can only be achieved by a massive improvement in the fuel economy of their product range. It is easy (and right) to challenge the contradictory tactics Ford have undertaken in the short term to resist calls for rapid improvements in fuel economy or to point to the fundamental economic unsustainability of their current business model; but I know that the people I was dealing with had genuinely seen the light on climate; were persuaded to the scale of the climate challenge; and accepted more directly than any other carbon intensive company I know, accountability for the full lifecycle emissions of their products. The conclusions of those VPs are a signal of what I see as the next wave in corporate climate accountability – measuring, managing, monitoring and reporting the full carbon footprint of a business’ products and services.

So back to Michael. He is a veritable dynamo of mental and verbal energy. Combined with my jetlag, it took me a while to tune in. But in a few minutes he was able to give me his take on how Bali is playing out (he has been active at every one of the 13 COP meetings). His biggest concern is that there is no talk of absolute targets – whether to avoid exceeding the maximum 2 degrees Celsius in average global temperature increase as recommended by the IPCC ‘to avoid the unmanageable’ or to set specific goals for atmospheric GHG concentrations.

He told me too about the Bali Declaration which was launched here last Thursday. Michael and others in Australia and the UK felt it was time for the climate scientists of the world to speak out and be clearer and more prescriptive in terms of what their evidence required Bali negotiators to focus on: the terms of reference of the IPCC itself preclude such direct ‘demands’. It is a simple declaration signed by 150+ IPCC scientists in their personal capacities and lays out in about four paragraphs why the UN needs to deliver a protocol which will deliver sufficient emissions reductions to stay below the 2 degree threshold and that this should be targeted by stabilising GHG concentrations ‘at a level well below 450 ppm’. It stresses the urgency, saying ‘global emissions must peak and decline in the next 10 to 15 years, so there is no time to lose’. The Declaration has caused a storm of media coverage around the globe. But its impact is likely to be highest here in Bali.

So one of the benefits of holding this conference is that it provides a stimulus and a focal point for a huge range of stakeholders to maximise their influence on the debate and on the negotiations. I have already referred to major studies and reports which have been researched and produced over the last year or so which are given a platform here for launch, dissemination, publicity and influence. And the world’s media feel as duty bound as the rest of us here not be by the pool, but to use their short time here to file as many stories as possible. The combined effect of the inputs of so many expert views, data and innovative thinking is, of course, not quantifiable but it is constant, committed and very impressive.

The conference is effectively a small global village of people with a common passion and commitment to the issue of climate and finding solutions. Take the NGO Beach Party. Within minutes of arriving, I had been introduced by Diana Liverman to a host of past and present ECI staff and alumni. As some of you will know, I spend part of my life in Oxford teaching on ECI’s MSc Environmental Change and Management programme – with a focus on sustainability and business. Past students have since appeared around the world in senior academic, government and consulting roles. One of the alumni I met was Mike Mason who founded Climate Care – a leading player in the provision of offsets. (As it happens, we at SustainAbility have used this organisation to offset our emissions since 1999; in addition to paying a ‘levy’ on our turnover which Climate Care have calculated should fully offset our GHG emissions, we also encourage our clients to pay a similar levy on our charges to them. At least in theory that has made us ‘climate positive’ for the last eight years!

Mike rapidly collared another of Diana’s acquaintances Virgílio Viana, Secretary for Environment and Sustainable Development of Amazonas State, and sparks of positive mutual lobbying started to fly. Virgilio had earlier been explaining to me that he saw himself as a ‘solutionologist’ and listed the many achievements, against the odds, made by his team in protecting rainforests. He was also pushing an idea he had for addressing the impasse at the conference over the payment of carbon credits to further protect existing forests. More on that tomorrow.

As I was fed a series of introductions by Diana, I gradually realised that I was in passive networking mode where she was in active. Very active! I spoke to her after the party and commented on how she was so enthusiastically making endless contacts and introductions but – more to the point – was doing so for the benefit of others rather than for herself. She was very humble and self-effacing, claiming that it was virtually part of her job description to maximise everyone’s opportunity to meet, to listen, to learn and to influence. She is a tribute to the invisible hand(shaking?) of the Bali social networking market. And that for me is sufficient reason in itself to be here. The energy – excitement even – of the participants, whatever their role or background, is palpable. I felt this in Rio at the Earth Summit and again at the Delhi COP. It is a privilege to be able so easily to meet and mix with people who share a common passion and purpose.

I will leave it to others to judge whether Bali is simply a high carbon jamboree – or a milestone towards a low carbon future. But for now, my next party calls…