Business breakfast, lunch and dinner (COP 13)

10 Dec 2007 – Geoff Lye

After a brief early morning downpour, I had a very humid but interesting breakfast with Shell’s Climate Change Adviser, David Hone who later gave an excellent insight into the challenges of CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) at the WBCSD’s Bali Global Business Day. The event’s title was Tri Hita Karana which refers, in a sense, to life’s ‘triple bottom lines’ aiming for welfare and security through harmonious relationships with God, with fellow human beings and with the environment.

In practice the day did not live up to its billing or aspirations. A highlight, though, was Yvo de Boer, the UN man in charge of the negotiations. He spoke at the beginning and at the end of the day and came across as very competent, thoughtful – and remarkably relaxed given the complexity and unfathomable politics of the negotiating process. Overall, he was optimistic for a positive outcome; very engaged with and supportive of the role of business in co-creating solutions. At an early session, the International Energy Agency (IEA) demonstrated that even in the last year all energy trends are continuing in the wrong direction, to the point where achieving significant emissions reductions looks ‘more like science fiction’. De Boer’s response at the end of the day was that if the business community believes that the required dramatic reductions are a fantasy, then corporations are ‘facing extinction’. He has a very direct but charmingly diplomatic style which I warmed to.

In terms of his priorities for the COP outcome, he declared his strategy as focusing on getting agreement to the principles and in particular ‘the instruments in the tool box’ for detailed refinement over the next 12 months; only then does he want to get the lawyers involved and specific targets tied down. Three objectives he has for achieving a ‘breakthrough’ are to have formal negotiations for the post Kyoto protocol committed to (I had no idea that the alternative was remotely likely); to get agreement on the key items for negotiation; and to have a clear timeline up to COP 15 in Copenhagen.

The way he described his approach goes some way to addressing Michael Molitor’s concern (see December 8th blog entry) that specific numbers are not being discussed; I think he assumed that this was a reflection of a possible final outcome for COP 15 in Copenhagen, but it would appear from de Boer’s comments to be part of a deliberate strategy. On the other hand, what is called a ‘non-paper’ (please don’t ask) developed by the Co-Facilitators carries text as referring to ‘quantified national emissions objectives’ which I and others read as much weaker language than Kyoto’s ‘quantified emission limitation or reduction commitments’.

It is also perhaps not insignificant – though de Boer was diplomatic enough not to mention it – that the world(!) will have a new US President in 2009 and everyone (I suspect including the US delegation, though they couldn’t possibly say so) take for granted a major policy shift at that time, if other pressures do not force a radical change in position earlier. Easier, if so, to move forward on generalities and principles for the moment and leave the specifics for a new order to agree.

During lunch, Dr. Mari Elka Pangestu, the Indonesian Trade Minister reported on the novel talks she had instigated between international trade ministers as a side process to the main conference. She had a clear grasp of the issues and spoke to them very convincingly without notes. I found myself sitting with social entrepreneur, Andy Steel of Asia Forestry and the PATT Foundation. He is based in Bangkok and has infectious enthusiasm for his re-forestation projects. Social enterprise is apparently a growing force in the region.

Another highlight of the day came when Gro Harlem Brundtland – a hero of many if not most in the room – offered her perspectives, having patiently been sitting through about eight hours of presentations. She said one of questions she is most often asked is whether she is frustrated by the slow process of the last 20 years. Surprisingly, she felt that this is such a short time in human history that the positive achievements we have seen are possibly more than she could have expected.

The low point of the day was the dinner which was laid out for 300 and attracted barely a quarter of that. It was billed as a ‘working dinner’ but in reality was a series of nine speakers leading up to a formal speech by Gro Harlem Brundtland at 9.30 pm. By then the numbers were even fewer. In any event, I was happy to head back to my room and to this blog.

But finally… As I was writing this blog, I read of another NGO acronym – YENGOs (Young Environmental NGOs). Given my Middle Age, does this make me a MANGO?

mangos yengos