Bali: high carbon jamboree – or a milestone towards a low carbon future? (COP 13)

18 Dec 2007 – Geoff Lye

I posed this question in my second blog and now is perhaps the best time to take stock – before I am exposed to the UK’s commentators.

If forced to rate the outcome on a 0-10 scale (from total failure to complete success), I would rate it as 6.5. The UN’s own objectives were to secure commitment to forward negotiations; to clarify the key components of a post-Kyoto protocol; and to have an agreed timeline. These were robustly achieved. On the other hand, the EU goal of having a ‘target range’ of 25-40%’ emissions’ reductions by 2020 was sacrificed as a necessary condition of securing US sign-up to the Roadmap. The text now simply recognises that ‘deep cuts in global emissions will be required’.

But given the US intransigence and the certainty of a new administration half way through the Bali timeline, the (pragmatic and sensible) strategy appears to be to use 2008 to work through the framework issues and the protocol’s mechanisms. 2009 will then be the year for negotiating detailed numbers and reduction timetable/targets. Expect COP 15 to be another rollercoaster.

Other significant achievements? Real advances were made in agreements on:

• The inclusion of REDD (Reduction of Deforestation in Developing countries).

• Adaptation measures and funding mechanisms especially for developing countries

• Principles for clean technology transfer to developing countries

• Greater clarity of, and commitment to, the respective roles of developed and developing economies

• A strengthened economic case for urgent and early action (exemplified by Stern, Germany, California, corporations, etc.)

• The scientific case that climate is real and man made: the ‘uncertainty debate’ is now firmly focused on the timing, scale and impacts of climate change.

Lessons for business? I will be developing a proper business briefing in due course, but headline thoughts as my plane rapidly closes in on London are initial and in summary form only.

Overall, Bali adds further powerful support for the business case to address climate strategically. This warrants investments by all companies – but particularly a carbon intensive one – to:

• Measure – and manage down – the full lifecycle carbon footprints of its operations and products

• Factor a (rapidly) growing cost of carbon into all business risk and opportunity assessments

• Anticipate unexpected disruptions in carbon intensive markets and products as clean tech transforms markets and public concern intensifies against high carbon emitters

• Become involved in progressive industry organisations (such as WBCSD); and adopt proactive ‘levelling up’ policy strategies

On balance, it feels – at least until I land and have my feet firmly back in the real world – that Bali will be judged a real milestone in the history of climate solutions. It would be very easy to focus on what COP 13 failed to achieve, but that strikes me as the assessment of the ‘half empty’ school of thought. I prefer ‘half full’ thinking.